Finesses Aren't the Only Option

Dealer:  South Vul: All	Molly ♠Q ♥J63 ♦AJ8753 ♣A65
Kathleen ♠97652 ♥KT ♦T4 ♣T843		Michael ♠JT83 ♥842 ♦Q62 ♣QJ2
	Eddie ♠AK4 ♥AQ975 ♦K9 ♣K97

South	West	North	East
Eddie	Kathleen	Molly	Michael
1♥	Pass	2♦	Pass
3NT	Pass	4♥	All Pass

Opening Lead: ♠ 5

Playing with a friend, Kathleen, at a local club we had this hand come up. Put yourself in Eddie's shoes. How many tricks do you think you would win?

The heart finesse loses, and it looks like you have a club loser. So it should make 5♥. There's nothing you can do about the heart loser, but can you get rid of the club? Here's how Eddie tried.

After winning the opening spade in dummy, he took the heart finesse. He won the club return in hand, drew trump, and then played the ♦K and then finessed the ♦J. This was a pretty good plan. If the finesse worked, he could use the ♦A to throw away his club loser. If the finesse failed, well, he loses a diamond he didn't need to but can still throw away a club on the ♦A to make 5. Unfortunately for Eddie the diamond finesse failed, and he only made 5.

Could he have done better?

He has an 8 card ♦ fit. When you have an 8 card fit, the outstanding cards will split 3-2 approximately 68% of the time. This is a higher percentage than the 50% odds that a finesse gives you. Eddie should have played the ♦K and the ♦A and then ruffed a diamond. If diamonds split 3-2, dummy's long diamonds are now good, and he can use dummy's ♣A to get over to them.

Setting up a long suit seems to be less obvious than a finesse. No one else at the club made 6 either. However, finesses are only 50-50 propositions. It never hurts to see if there is a different option that is more likely to work first.