Creating Extra Chances

Dealer:  South Vul: All	Michael ♠A62 ♥A9753 ♦86 ♣QJ3
Harry ♠KT4 ♥QT2 ♦942 ♣T985		Annie ♠J73 ♥86 ♦AKT75 ♣742
	William ♠Q985 ♥KJ4 ♦QJ3 ♣AK6

South	West	North	East
William	Harry	Michael	Annie
1NT	Pass	2♦	Double
2♥	Pass	4♥	All Pass

Opening Lead: ♦ 9

I played this hand at a recent club game.  As you can see, there is no legitimate way to make 4♥, but I could have given myself more chances than I did.

First, a note on the bidding.  Michael and I had discussed that my completion of the transfer showed 3+ hearts.  However, what do the follow-up bids mean?  If Annie hadn't doubled, a Jacoby transfer followed by a jump to game would show mild slam interest (otherwise, just he would just transfer at the 4-level).  Now that the situation has changed, the jump to game is just that.  There is no need to bid 3NT before 4♥ since he knows there is a fit.  A 3♦ bid would now show the slam interest.

On the play, Harry dutifully led a diamond, Annie cashed the top two diamonds, and then thought for a while about what to do next.  I was also thinking about what to do and saw that if she led a spade, I would need to pitch my second losing spade on the ♦Q immediately to avoid losing 2 spades.  Since I had a spade to lose regardless, I needed to play hearts for no losers; the simplest way was to find Annie with the queen.

After a long deliberation, Annie led a club.  Not thinking about the tempo advantage gained from this, I went ahead with my plan.  I cashed the ♦Q, pitching a spade, led a heart to the ace, and finessed the ♥J on the way back.  It lost, and I lost the ♠K as well for down 1.

So what could I do?  I'm always going to lose the protected, offside ♥Q and the ♠K in addition to the two top diamonds, right? On this hand, sure, but in general, the cards are not always poorly placed.  I should have thought about what the club lead at trick 3 meant.  Why didn't Annie lead a spade as I expected her to?  Maybe she didn't want to lead away from her ♠K.  If that was the case, I could have tried for a swindle.  If I let the club run around to the board and lead a low spade, she may now expect that I have the AK of clubs and play her partner for the ♠Q, ducking the low spade lead.  Suddenly my spade loser disappears.

I have a tough time looking past the "real" chances for a contract to see where I might induce mistakes from my opponents.