A Simple Hold-Up

Dealer:  North Vul: N-S	Betty ♠96 ♥A85 ♦A9 ♣AQT953
Charlie ♠Q74 ♥KQJ763 ♦Q83 ♣8		Irene ♠T85 ♥T4 ♦T652 ♣K642
	William ♠AKJ32 ♥92 ♦KJ74 ♣J7

South	West	North	East
William	Charlie	Betty	Irene
		1♣	Pass
1♠	Pass	2♣	Pass
3NT	All Pass

Opening Lead: ♥ K

Drats!  Charlie found the correct red suit to lead.  I had hoped that by bidding straight to 3NT, I might keep him in the dark on what to lead.

On the initial survey of the hand, I saw just 6 top tricks, so I needed to promote some tricks. There were finessing possibilities in every suit; if they all won, I could get 6 clubs, 3 or 4 diamonds, a heart, and 3 or more spades. I could get all the tricks! However, I also considered what would happen if any of my myriad finesses might fail.  If the spade or diamond finesses lost, Charlie would gain the lead and would undoubtedly lead more hearts.  If the club finesse lost, Irene would be on lead and would also lead another heart...unless she didn’t have any more to lead.

To attempt to keep Irene from leading hearts, I played low to Charlie's first two heart leads.  On the third, I was gratified to learn that my patience had paid off when I saw Irene discard a low diamond. This meant Charlie had started 6 hearts (a little unexpected, given their quality, that he hadn't bid them), enough that he could set my 3NT contract were he allowed to take them. I won the ♥A and crossed to my hand in spades, not taking the finesse.  I led the ♣J, and it ran into Irene's king.  Success! Irene, depleted of hearts, led back a spade, but my king won, and I was able to claim the remaining tricks. Seeing that Charlie had started with both the ♦Q and the ♠Q made the hold-up all the more important.

Sometimes you're unlucky enough to have 3 of 3 finesses offside (about a 12% chance). However, sometimes careful planning and the willingness to lose tricks early can overcome that bad luck.